埃隆·马斯克认为，人类从在火星登陆一艘满载殖民者的飞船到建立一个自我维持的文明，需要40到100年的时间。在他的公司SpaceX今天的活动上，马斯克展示了一个至少能载100人的舰队，每两年飞行一次，如何在火星城市中居住：

If we say the minimum threshold for a self-sustaining city on Mars, or civilization, would be a million people, and you can only go every two years, if you have 100 people per ship, that's 10,000 trips. So I think at least 100 people per trip is the right order of magnitude, and I think we actually may end up expanding the crew section and ultimately taking more like 200 or more people per flight in order to reduce the cost per person.

But 10,000 flights is a lot of flights. So you'd really want ultimately I think on the order of 1,000 ships. It would take a while to build up to a thousand ships, and so I think if you say when we reach that million-person threshold, from the point at which the first ship goes to Mars, it's probably somewhere between 20 to 50 total Mars rendezvous. So it's probably somewhere between maybe 40 to 100 years to achieve a fully self-sustaining civilization on Mars.

几个小时前，马斯克宣布了一个新的“行星际运输系统”，理论上可以将人类送上火星，每人花费约20万美元，而不是数十亿美元。当然，SpaceX的所有计划都涉及很多猜测——正如马斯克在上述声明中所显示的那样，即使一切顺利，这些计划也需要几十年才能实现。

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spacex火星之旅模拟