你以前听过：有人遇到信用卡或抵押贷款支付问题，需要制定一个支付计划，以避免破产。当一个国家遇到类似的债务问题时，它该怎么办？对一些新兴经济体来说，发行主权债务是筹集资金的唯一途径，但事情很快就会变坏。各国在努力发展的同时如何处理债务？

大多数国家——从经济发展中的国家到世界上最富有的国家——都发行债务来为经济增长提供资金。这类似于企业如何贷款为新项目融资，或者家庭如何贷款买房。最大的区别是尺寸；主权债务贷款可能覆盖数十亿美元，而个人或企业贷款可能在当时相当小。

主权债务主权债务是**对借钱者的偿还承诺。它是那个国家**发行的债券的价值。**债务和主权债务的最大区别在于，**债务是以本币发行的，而主权债务是以外币发行的。贷款由发行国担保。

在购买**主权债务之前，投资者决定投资的风险。美国等一些国家的债务一般被认为是无风险的，而新兴国家或发展中国家的债务风险更大。投资者必须考虑**的稳定，**如何偿还债务，以及国家违约的可能性。在某些方面，这种风险分析类似于对公司债务进行的风险分析，尽管有时主权债务投资者的风险敞口会大大增加。由于主权债务的经济和政治风险大于发达国家的债务，因此该债务的评级往往低于安全AAA和AA级，并可能被视为低于投资级别。

以外币发行的债券投资者更喜欢以他们熟悉和信任的货币进行投资，如美元和英镑。这就是为什么发达经济体的**能够发行以本国货币计价的债券。发展中国家的货币的历史记录往往较短，而且可能不那么稳定，这意味着对以其货币计价的债务的需求将少得多。

风险和声誉发展中国家在借贷资金方面可能处于不利地位。与信用不良的投资者一样，发展中国家必须支付更高的利率，并以更强势的外币发行债务，以抵消投资者承担的额外风险。然而，大多数国家不会遇到还款问题。如果缺乏经验的**高估了由债务供资的项目的价值，高估了经济增长将产生的收入，使债务结构只在最佳经济情况下才可行，就会产生问题，或者如果汇率使以计价货币支付变得太困难。

是什么让一个发行主权债务的国家首先想要偿还贷款？毕竟，如果它能让投资者把钱投入到它的经济中，他们不承担风险吗？新兴经济体希望偿还债务，因为它创造了投资者在评估未来投资机会时可以利用的稳固声誉。正如青少年必须建立稳固的信用以建立信誉一样，发行主权债务的国家也希望偿还债务，以便投资者能够看到他们能够偿还任何后续贷款。

违约对主权债务的影响可能比对公司债务的影响更为复杂，因为国内资产无法用于偿还资金。相反，债务条款将重新谈判，如果不是全部损失的话，往往会让贷款人陷入不利境地。因此，无论是从违约对国际市场的影响，还是从违约对该国人口的影响来看，违约的影响可能会显著更为深远。一个违约的**很容易变成一个混乱的**，这对发行国其他类型的投资可能是灾难性的。

债务违约的原因从本质上讲，当一个国家的债务超过其支付能力时，就会发生违约。有几种情况下会发生这种情况：

• During a currency crisis The domestic currency loses its convertibility due to rapid changes in the exchange rate. It becomes too expensive to convert the domestic currency to the currency in which the debt is issued.
• Changing economic climate If the country relies heavily on exports, especially in commodities, a significant reduction in foreign demand can shrink GDP and make repayment costly. If a country issues short-term sovereign debt, it is more vulnerable to fluctuati*** in market sentiment.
• Domestic politics Default risk is often associated with unstable government structure. A new party that seizes power may be reluctant to satisfy the debt obligati*** accumulated by the previous leaders.

债务违约的例子新兴经济体在债务问题上有几个突出的例子。

• North Korea (1987) Post-war North Korea required massive investment in order to jump start economic development. In 1980 it defaulted on most of its newly-restructured foreign debt, and owed nearly $3 billion by 1987. Industrial mi**anagement and significant military spending led to a decline in GNP and ability to repay outstanding loans.
• Russia (1998) A large portion of Russian exports came from the sale of commodities, leaving it susceptible to price fluctuati***. Russia's default sent a negative sentiment throughout international markets as many became shocked that an international power can default. This catastrophic event resulted in the well documented collapse of long-term capital management.
• Argentina (2002) Argentina's economy experienced hyperinflation after it began to grow in the early 1980s, but managed to keep things on an even keel by pegging its currency to the U.S. dollar. A recession in the late 1990s pushed the government to default on its debt in 2002, with foreign investors subsequently ceasing to put more money into the Argentine economy.

近几十年来，全球资本市场日益一体化，使新兴经济体能够利用不同的债务工具获得更多样化的投资者。这给新兴经济体带来了更大的灵活性，但也增加了不确定性，因为债务分布在如此多的党派。每一方都有不同的目标和对风险的承受能力，这使得在违约面前决定最佳行动方案成为一项复杂的任务。购买主权债务的投资者必须坚定而灵活。如果他们在还款问题上过于用力，可能会加速经济崩溃；如果他们施压力度不够大，他们可能会向其他债务国发出一个信号，即贷款人将在压力下屈服。如果需要重组，重组的目标应该是保持债权人持有的资产价值，同时帮助发行国恢复经济活力。

• Incentives to repay Countries with unsustainable levels of debt should be given the option of approaching creditors to discuss repayment opti*** without being taken to task. This creates transparency and gives a clear signal that the country wants to continue loan payments.
• Providing restructuring alternatives Before moving to debt restructuring, indebted nati*** should examine their economic policies to see what sorts of adjustments can be made to allow them to resume loan payments. This can be difficult, if the government is headstrong, since being told what to do can push them over the edge.
• Lending prudently While investors might be on the lookout for diversification into a new country, that doesn't mean that flooding cash into international securities will always have a positive result. Transparency and corruption are important factors to examine before pouring money into expensive endeavors.
• Debt forgiveness Due to the moral hazard associated with letting debtor countries off the hook, creditors c***ider wiping a country's debt clean to be the absolute last thing that they want. However, countries saddled with debt, especially if that debt is owed to an organization such as the World Bank, can seek to have their debt forgiven if it will create economic and political stability. A failed state can have a negative effect on surrounding countries.

结论国际金融市场的存在使新兴经济体有可能为经济增长提供资金，但也会使债权人之间的集体协议更加复杂，从而使债务偿还变得困难。由于没有严格的机制来简化问题的解决，主权债务发行人和投资者达成相互谅解是很重要的，即每个人最好达成协议，而不是让债务违约。