经常账户赤字:政府投资还是不负责任?

经常账户是一国国际收支(BOP)中记录其经常性交易的部分。该账户分为四个部分:商品、服务、收入(如工资和投资收入)和单方面转账(如工人汇款)。...

经常账户是一国国际收支(BOP)中记录其经常**易的部分。该账户分为四个部分:商品、服务、收入(如工资和投资收入)和单方面转账(如工人汇款)。

当一个国家的经常账户赤字超过构成该账户的四个因素中的一个或多个时,就会出现经常账户赤字。当当前交易进入账户时,记录为贷方;当一个值离开帐户时,它被标记为借方。基本上,经常账户赤字发生在支付的钱比流入的钱多的时候。

赤字意味着什么

当一个经常账户出现赤字时,通常意味着一个国家在国外的投资多于在国内的储蓄。通常,决定一个国家投资决策的逻辑是,赚钱需要钱。为了提高国内生产总值(GDP)和未来增长,一个国家可能会负债,承担对其他国家的债务。然后,它就成为世界上所谓的“净债务国”。然而,如果一国**没有规划出一个健全的经济政策,没有将债务用于消费目的,而不是用于未来的增长,就可能产生有问题的赤字(有关更多信息,请参阅国债和**债券。)

经常账户赤字意味着一个国家的经济是靠借来的手段运转的。换言之,其他国家基本上是在为经济融资,从而维持赤字。在确定一个国家的经济健康状况时,重要的是要了解赤字的来源、资金来源以及缓解赤字的可能办法。要做到这一点,我们不仅要看经常账户,还要看国际收支的另外两个部分,即资本账户和金融账户。

The Capital and Financial Accounts Foreign funds entering a country from the sale or purchase of tangible assets - as opposed to non-physical assets such as stocks or bonds - are recorded in the capital account of the BOP. (Again, money entering the account is noted as a credit, and money leaving the account is a debit.) Financial transacti*** such as money leaving the country for investment abroad are recorded in the financial account. Together, these two accounts provide financing for a current account deficit.

为什么会出现赤字?

经常账户赤字仅仅是**糟糕的计划和/或无法控制的支出和消费的问题吗?嗯,有时候。但更多的时候,赤字计划是为了帮助一个经济体的发展和增长。这也可能是一个强劲的经济迹象,是外国资金的避风港(我们将在下面解释这一点)。当一个经济体处于转型或改革状态,或者正在推行积极的增长战略时,今天的赤字可以为明天的国内消费和投资提供资金。以下是一些国家经历的计划内和计划外赤字类型。

Balance of Trade Deficit With the long-term in mind, a country may run a deficit by importing more than it's exporting, with the ultimate goal of producing finished goods for export. In this scenario, the country will plan to pay off the temporary excess of imports at a later time with proceeds made from future export sales. The proceeds made from these sales would then become a current account credit. (To learn more, read In Praise Of Trade Deficits.)Investing for the Future Instead of saving money now, a country could also choose to invest abroad in order to reap the rewards in the future. The outing funds would be recorded as a debit in the financial account, while the corresponding incoming investment income would eventually be earmarked as a credit in the current account. Often, a current account deficit coincides with depletion in a country's foreign reserves (limited resources of foreign currency available to invest abroad).Foreign Investors When foreign investors send money into the domestic economy, the latter must eventually pay out the returns due to the foreign investors. As such, a deficit may be a result of the claims foreigners have on the local economy (recorded as a debit in the current account). This kind of deficit could also be a sign of a strong, efficient and transparent local economy, in which foreign money finds a safe place for investment. The United States capital market, for example, was seen as such when "quality assets" were sought out by investors burned in the Asian crisis. The U.S. experienced a surge of foreign investment into its capital markets. And while the U.S. received money that could help increase domestic productivity and hence expand its economy, all of those investments would have to be paid off in the form of returns (dividends, capital gains), which are debits in the current account. So a deficit could be the result of increased claims by foreign investors, whose money is used to increase local productivity and stimulate the economy.Overspending Without Enough Income Sometimes governments spend more than they earn, simply due to ill-advised economic planning. Money may be spent on costly imports while local productivity lags behind. Or, it may be deemed a priority for the government to spend on the military rather than economic production. Whatever the reason, a deficit will ensue if credits and debits do not balance.

为赤字融资

Public and Private Foreign Funds Funding channeled into the capital and financial accounts (remember, these accounts finance the deficits in the current account) can come from both public (official) and private sources. Governments, which account for official capital flows, often buy and sell foreign currencies. Credit from these sales is recorded in the financial account. Private sources, whether instituti*** or individuals, may be receiving money from some sort of foreign direct investment (FDI) scheme, which appears as a debit in the income section of the current account but, when investment income is finally received, becomes a credit.Balanced Financing To avoid unnecessary extra risks associated with investing money abroad, the financing of the deficit should ideally rely on a combination of long-term and short-term funds rather than one or the other. If, for example, a foreign capital market suddenly collapses, it can no longer provide another country with investment income. The same would be true if a country borrows money and political differences cut the credit line. However, by planning to receive recurrent investment income over the years, such as by means of an FDI project, a country could intelligently finance its current account deficit.Capital Flight In times of global recession, the financing of a deficit can sometimes be traced to capital flight, that is, private individuals and corporati*** sending their money into "safe" economies. This money is recorded as a credit in the current account but, in reality, it is not a reliable source of financing. In fact, it is a strong indication that the world economy is slowing and may not be able to provide financing in the near future.

底线

为了确定一个国家的经济是否疲弱,重要的是要知道为什么会出现赤字以及如何为赤字融资。赤字可能是一些国家经济困难的标志,也可能是其他国家经济健康的标志。为了支持世界各国的经常账户赤字,全球经济必须足够强大,以便能够购买出口和偿还投资收入。然而,经常账户赤字往往不能维持太久——人们广泛争论的是,今天的消费是否会给后代带来长期债务。

  • 发表于 2021-06-12 08:43
  • 阅读 ( 72 )
  • 分类:商业金融

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