你以前聽過：有人遇到信用卡或抵押貸款支付問題，需要制定一個支付計劃，以避免破產。當一個國家遇到類似的債務問題時，它該怎麼辦？對一些新興經濟體來說，發行主權債務是籌集資金的唯一途徑，但事情很快就會變壞。各國在努力發展的同時如何處理債務？

大多數國家——從經濟發展中的國家到世界上最富有的國家——都發行債務來為經濟增長提供資金。這類似於企業如何貸款為新專案融資，或者家庭如何貸款買房。最大的區別是尺寸；主權債務貸款可能覆蓋數十億美元，而個人或企業貸款可能在當時相當小。

主權債務主權債務是**對借錢者的償還承諾。它是那個國家**發行的債券的價值。**債務和主權債務的最大區別在於，**債務是以本幣發行的，而主權債務是以外幣發行的。貸款由發行國擔保。

在購買**主權債務之前，投資者決定投資的風險。美國等一些國家的債務一般被認為是無風險的，而新興國家或發展中國家的債務風險更大。投資者必須考慮**的穩定，**如何償還債務，以及國家違約的可能性。在某些方面，這種風險分析類似於對公司債務進行的風險分析，儘管有時主權債務投資者的風險敞口會大大增加。由於主權債務的經濟和政治風險大於發達國家的債務，因此該債務的評級往往低於安全AAA和AA級，並可能被視為低於投資級別。

以外幣發行的債券投資者更喜歡以他們熟悉和信任的貨幣進行投資，如美元和英鎊。這就是為什麼發達經濟體的**能夠發行以本國貨幣計價的債券。發展中國家的貨幣的歷史記錄往往較短，而且可能不那麼穩定，這意味著對以其貨幣計價的債務的需求將少得多。

風險和聲譽發展中國家在借貸資金方面可能處於不利地位。與信用不良的投資者一樣，發展中國家必須支付更高的利率，並以更強勢的外幣發行債務，以抵消投資者承擔的額外風險。然而，大多數國家不會遇到還款問題。如果缺乏經驗的**高估了由債務供資的專案的價值，高估了經濟增長將產生的收入，使債務結構只在最佳經濟情況下才可行，就會產生問題，或者如果匯率使以計價貨幣支付變得太困難。

是什麼讓一個發行主權債務的國家首先想要償還貸款？畢竟，如果它能讓投資者把錢投入到它的經濟中，他們不承擔風險嗎？新興經濟體希望償還債務，因為它創造了投資者在評估未來投資機會時可以利用的穩固聲譽。正如青少年必須建立穩固的信用以建立信譽一樣，發行主權債務的國家也希望償還債務，以便投資者能夠看到他們能夠償還任何後續貸款。

違約對主權債務的影響可能比對公司債務的影響更為複雜，因為國內資產無法用於償還資金。相反，債務條款將重新談判，如果不是全部損失的話，往往會讓貸款人陷入不利境地。因此，無論是從違約對國際市場的影響，還是從違約對該國人口的影響來看，違約的影響可能會顯著更為深遠。一個違約的**很容易變成一個混亂的**，這對發行國其他型別的投資可能是災難性的。

債務違約的原因從本質上講，當一個國家的債務超過其支付能力時，就會發生違約。有幾種情況下會發生這種情況：

• During a currency crisis The domestic currency loses its convertibility due to rapid changes in the exchange rate. It becomes too expensive to convert the domestic currency to the currency in which the debt is issued.
• Changing economic climate If the country relies heavily on exports, especially in commodities, a significant reduction in foreign demand can shrink GDP and make repayment costly. If a country issues short-term sovereign debt, it is more vulnerable to fluctuati*** in market sentiment.
• Domestic politics Default risk is often associated with unstable government structure. A new party that seizes power may be reluctant to satisfy the debt obligati*** accumulated by the previous leaders.

債務違約的例子新興經濟體在債務問題上有幾個突出的例子。

• North Korea (1987) Post-war North Korea required massive investment in order to jump start economic development. In 1980 it defaulted on most of its newly-restructured foreign debt, and owed nearly $3 billion by 1987. Industrial mi**anagement and significant military spending led to a decline in GNP and ability to repay outstanding loans.
• Russia (1998) A large portion of Russian exports came from the sale of commodities, leaving it susceptible to price fluctuati***. Russia's default sent a negative sentiment throughout international markets as many became shocked that an international power can default. This catastrophic event resulted in the well documented collapse of long-term capital management.
• Argentina (2002) Argentina's economy experienced hyperinflation after it began to grow in the early 1980s, but managed to keep things on an even keel by pegging its currency to the U.S. dollar. A recession in the late 1990s pushed the government to default on its debt in 2002, with foreign investors subsequently ceasing to put more money into the Argentine economy.

近幾十年來，全球資本市場日益一體化，使新興經濟體能夠利用不同的債務工具獲得更多樣化的投資者。這給新興經濟體帶來了更大的靈活性，但也增加了不確定性，因為債務分佈在如此多的黨派。每一方都有不同的目標和對風險的承受能力，這使得在違約面前決定最佳行動方案成為一項複雜的任務。購買主權債務的投資者必須堅定而靈活。如果他們在還款問題上過於用力，可能會加速經濟崩潰；如果他們施壓力度不夠大，他們可能會向其他債務國發出一個訊號，即貸款人將在壓力下屈服。如果需要重組，重組的目標應該是保持債權人持有的資產價值，同時幫助發行國恢復經濟活力。

• Incentives to repay Countries with unsustainable levels of debt should be given the option of approaching creditors to discuss repayment opti*** without being taken to task. This creates transparency and gives a clear signal that the country wants to continue loan payments.
• Providing restructuring alternatives Before moving to debt restructuring, indebted nati*** should examine their economic policies to see what sorts of adjustments can be made to allow them to resume loan payments. This can be difficult, if the government is headstrong, since being told what to do can push them over the edge.
• Lending prudently While investors might be on the lookout for diversification into a new country, that doesn't mean that flooding cash into international securities will always have a positive result. Transparency and corruption are important factors to examine before pouring money into expensive endeavors.
• Debt forgiveness Due to the moral hazard associated with letting debtor countries off the hook, creditors c***ider wiping a country's debt clean to be the absolute last thing that they want. However, countries saddled with debt, especially if that debt is owed to an organization such as the World Bank, can seek to have their debt forgiven if it will create economic and political stability. A failed state can have a negative effect on surrounding countries.

結論國際金融市場的存在使新興經濟體有可能為經濟增長提供資金，但也會使債權人之間的集體協議更加複雜，從而使債務償還變得困難。由於沒有嚴格的機制來簡化問題的解決，主權債務發行人和投資者達成相互諒解是很重要的，即每個人最好達成協議，而不是讓債務違約。